Testing the Relationship Between Turnovers and Economic Confidence Variables With Fractional Frequency Fourier Adf and Granger Causality Test: The Case of Turkiye 2009:01-2023:05

This study aims to determine the causality relationship between economic confidence and sectoral turnover increases in Turkey. The sectors to be analysed in the study are industry, construction, trade and service sectors and the relationship between sectoral turnovers and economic confidence will be evaluated for the period 2009:01-2023:05. In the study, Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test and Fourier Granger Causality Test were applied. When the causality test results are analysed, it is seen that the relationship between variables differs on sector basis. In this context, while there is no causality relationship between the turnover of the construction sector and economic confidence, there is a relationship with the turnover of other sectors. The outputs obtained in this context will serve as a source for analysing which sector-specific policy arrangements should be made to increase economic confidence.