Development of a Simulation Model to Evaluate Dairy Production Systems in Northern Ireland

Profitable dairy farming requires continuous appraisal and adaptation of production systems in response to changing market and agricultural policy conditions. Geopolitical and climate events have exemplified the exposure of farm incomes to the increased volatility associated with often-global market factors. In this context, bio-economic models can be a useful tool for researchers seeking to understand the financial resilience of different production systems to these changing circumstances. The AFBI Dairy Systems Model is presented and used to simulate the impacts of alternative price scenarios for Northern Ireland-based dairy systems. The whole farm model consists of four interdependent components, comprising farm system, animal nutrition, feed supply and financial sub models. The model is used to evaluate how fluctuations in milk, concentrate, fertiliser, contractor, and electricity prices, as well as interest rate changes, affect three distinct production systems. The financial performance of all systems was sensitive to variations in milk and concentrate prices but relatively insensitive to variations in fertiliser, contractor, and electricity prices and interest rate changes. The profitability of a low-output system was less exposed to variations in prices. In contrast, a high-output system was more exposed to price variations. However, a medium-input system was the most profitable across the majority of price scenarios investigated.