Proposed Cuts to the Ryan White Program Could Raise HIV Incidence by 18% in 30 US States and the District of Columbia: A Simulation Study

Potential cuts to Ryan White Parts C and D, and funding for the Minority AIDS and EHE threaten to undermine the progress made in controlling the US HIV epidemic. Using an HIV simulation model in 30 states and Washington, DC, we project that ending these programs would lead to 23,883 additional HIV infections over five years - a 17.6% increase compared to continuing all Ryan White programs. The projected increases varied by state but were disproportionately large in the seven EHE priority states with a high rural burden of HIV. These findings highlight the importance of Ryan White services in preventing HIV transmission in the US.