Shadows Of The First Job: The Long-Term Effects Of Economic Conditions At Graduation In China

This study examines the long-term effects of graduating during weak economic conditions on the careers of Chinese university graduates. Using panel data from the China Family Panel Studies and national unemployment statistics from 2010 to 2020, I estimate baseline and fixed effect regression models to measure the impact of the unemployment rate at graduation on income and employment. Results show that a 1% increase in the graduation-year unemployment rate reduced employment probability by 0.05% points and lowered the annual income by roughly ¥460 ($64), with effects persisting even after controlling for time shocks. The findings highlight the need for support targeting graduates during economic downturns.