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October 17, 2025Open Access

Climate change has already reshaped North American forest pest dynamics: Insights from multidecadal process-based modelling

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Authors

YBYan BoulangerNatural Resources CanadaCMChris J.K. MacQuarrieCanadian Forest ServiceVMVéronique MartelCanadian Forest Service

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Implication

Process-based modeling reveals shifts in climatic suitability for forest pest species in North America, suggesting ecological implications.

Key Points

  • Substantial northward and elevational shifts in climate suitability for major forest pests occurred from 1951 to 2022.
  • Analysis showed key species like the mountain pine beetle now experience heightened exposure to suitable conditions.
  • Physiological models assessed climate impacts on eight pest species, highlighting geographic variability in shifts.
  • Increased climatic suitability for exotic pests indicates escalating ecological risks from ongoing anthropogenic climate change.

Cite This Study

Boulanger et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68f19f20de32064e504ddee1https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.15.682655
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