Assessing the Impact of Agricultural Droughts on Child Undernutrition in Varying Crop-Growing Periods and Agricultural Land Use: Analysis across 33 Sub-Saharan African Countries

Abstract Countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face persistent challenges in addressing child malnutrition, with approximately one-third of children under the age of five in the region experiencing chronic undernourishment. Previous studies have demonstrated that agricultural droughts contribute to child undernutrition; however, they have not adequately accounted for variations in agricultural land specialization and corresponding crop growing periods. In this study, we aim to address these heterogeneities by identifying vulnerable communities and specific exposure periods. We utilize anthropometric data for over 300,000 children ages 1 to 5 collected in nationally representative household surveys in 33 countries in SSA over three decades (1990-2022) and employ a novel approach that integrates detailed crop calendar information (crop planting and harvesting dates) with high-resolution agricultural and climatological datasets to detect droughts during specific crop-growing periods. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), a multi-scalar drought index, is used to measure the intensity and spatial distribution of droughts. We explore community-level heterogeneities determined by agricultural land specialization (crop farming or pastoralism) and the types of crops cultivated. Additionally, socioeconomic factors underlying vulnerability are explored. Our analysis reveals a significant association between agricultural droughts and the risk of child undernutrition among communities where agricultural land-use practices are dominated by crop farming. Specifically, droughts occurring during the growing seasons for grains and oilseeds exhibit a strong association with child undernutrition. Furthermore, residing in a rural area, being employed in agriculture, and belonging to a lower socioeconomic class are found to amplify the risk of undernutrition related to agricultural droughts among these communities. The findings presented in this study call for urgent action to improve drought monitoring and response in SSA where the risks to child health posed by global warming are considerable. Under climate change, the severity and frequency of extreme weather and climate events, including droughts, are projected to increase. This will place millions of children at risk of malnutrition unless timely action plans are taken to improve food security in the region.