Assessing tropical cyclone risks to China’s high-speed rail network

Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose a significant threat to transportation systems by bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall. The China Railway High-speed (CRH) network, the world’s largest high-speed rail system, is particularly vulnerable due to its proximity to the Northwest Pacific, the most active TC basin globally. To assess the TC risks faced by the CRH network, this study develops a compound hazard index combining TC-induced rainfall and wind based on operational standards. The results show that 42.7% of the CRH network, primarily in East and South China, is exposed to elevated-risk areas. Specifically, 26 of the 30 busiest CRH lines face elevated risks across multiple sections of their routes. The Beijing—Shanghai line, the busiest in the network, exhibits risk exposure across 99.8% of its total length, comprising 5.6% moderate, 60.0% severe, and 34.2% critical risk levels. These findings underscore the urgent need to enhance infrastructure resilience and provide a scientific basis for the development of TC early warning systems tailored to the CRH network.