Analyzing the Multifactor Driving Mechanism and Patterns of Economic Development in China from a Water Resource Perspective

With rapid economic development and the growing global demand for water resources, the relationship between water demand and economic growth has become a critical international concern. This study investigates the role of water resources in China’s economic growth by extending the Cobb–Douglas production function to include investment, labor, energy, land, and water resources. Using national and regional data from 1949 to 2023, we quantify the spatiotemporal dynamics of factor contributions across primary, secondary, and tertiary industries. Results show that investment remains the dominant growth driver, with rising contributions from energy and land, while labor is increasingly substituted. Water resources exhibit marked industrial and regional heterogeneity: since 2013, water constraints have intensified in the primary sector of the Yellow River basin and Northeast China, and in the secondary sector of the inland northwest and Yellow River provinces. Considering national food security imperatives and given the complementary nature of water–land resources and the fixed nature of land, we propose strategic water network planning based on land productivity patterns to optimize resource coordination and drive high-quality economic development.