Dual-Wheel Drive and Agricultural Green Development: The Co-Evolution and Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance and Green Finance

Agricultural green development cannot be achieved without effective financial support. Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2014 to 2023, this paper uses a coupling coordination model to measure and analyse the degree of coordination between digital inclusive finance and green finance; this further constructs a comprehensive evaluation system for agricultural green development, and on this basis uses a fixed-effect model and a threshold regression model to systematically examine the impact of the coordination between the two on agricultural green development. The findings are as follows: first, the coordination between digital inclusive finance and green finance shows an upward trend over time, shifting spatially from a high trend in the east to a low trend in the west to regional convergence; second, the coordination between the two has a substantial and favourable impact on green agricultural development, which is a conclusion that persists after robustness tests; third, the effect is heterogeneous, with more pronounced promotion effects in non-grain-producing regions, regions with high agricultural technology levels, and low levels of financial exclusion; fourth, the effect exhibits nonlinear characteristics, with coordination and agricultural industrial agglomeration each forming a single-threshold effect. This research lays down a foundational framework for financial coordination in supporting agricultural green development. It suggests promoting a dual-wheel coordination mechanism to effectively empower agricultural green development by strengthening technological empowerment, regional linkage, and designing differentiated policies.