The Economic–Cultural Dynamics of Urban Regeneration: Calibrating a Tripartite Evolutionary Game and Policy Thresholds for High-Quality Operational Renovation in China

Cities worldwide are transitioning from demolition–redevelopment-driven expansion to high-quality regeneration centered on stock upgrading, cultural continuity, and long-term operations. Against the backdrop of China’s high-quality urban renewal phase guided by the “anti-massive demolition and construction” policy, this study constructs a calibrated tripartite evolutionary game among government, investors, and residents. By embedding culture–economy parameters—cultural renovation intensity (k), operational profit-sharing ratio between investors and residents (j), cultural identification coefficient (i), and cost-sharing coefficient (w)—we establish a behavioral interaction mechanism of “cultural value conversion–benefit-sharing–cultural identification–cost-sharing.” Simulations based on replicator dynamics demonstrate that sustained tripartite cooperation requires four conditions: cultural intensity surpasses the cost threshold (k ∈ [0.6, 0.7]); the profit-sharing ratio preserves market incentives (j ∈ [0.25, 0.35]); cultural identification reaches a minimum threshold (i ≥ 0.4); and residents’ cost-sharing does not exceed their benefit capacity (w ≤ 0.2). These findings reveal the core tension in China’s high-quality urban renewal stage—namely, the challenge of instituting sustainable operational mechanisms under cultural protection constraints—and globally provide a quantifiable policy toolbox for culture-led urban regeneration.