Fire risk assessment in the Republic of Tajikistan

Purpose. The article provides assessment of integral fire risks in Tajikistan for the period from 2018 to 2022. The data on fires stored in the Main Directorate of State Fire Service of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Tajikistan are analyzed. The analysis covers the distribution of fires by regions and impact of natural, man-made and social factors on them. A comparative analysis with the fire risk values of other countries is made. Methods. Methods of mathematical statistics and systems analysis are used. Findings. From 2018 to 2022, 6 283 fires occurred in Tajikistan, 99 people died. The majority of fires occurred in residential buildings, which is 76.7% of their total number. The economic damage from fires over the past five years has exceeded 167 million somoni. Analysis of fire risk indicators in Tajikistan regions for the period under review revealed significant differences in safety levels. The highest risk for 1,000 people to encounter a fire is observed in Dushanbe (R1 = 0.223). The maximum risk for a person dying in 100 fires (R2) and the risk for 100,000 people dying in a fire per year (R3) were recorded in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (3.846 and 0.439, respectively). The least risks for all indicators are observed in the Khatlon region and districts of republican subordination. Comparative analysis shows that fire risks in Tajikistan are generally below the average in the world, with the exception of R2 risk. Research application field. The results of the study can be used for developing measures to ensure fire safety in Tajikistan. Conclusions. The article analyzes fire situation in Tajikistan and assesses integral fire risks. It reveals the need to strengthen preventive measures, improve material and technical base of fire departments and qualifications of fire safety specialists. Particular attention should be paid to ensuring human security in residential buildings fires.