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October 19, 2025Open Access

Forecasting Office Building Price Indices in Germany Using Regularized VARX Models

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Authors

MPMatthias PassekKNKonrad Nübel

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Overview

This research employs VARX models to enhance price forecasting accuracy for construction indices in Germany, suggesting effective budget optimization.

Key Points

  • Regularized VARX models deliver more accurate forecasts than macro-augmented VARX benchmarks.
  • The study evaluates models using mean absolute percentage error and out-of-time mean square error to ensure reliability.
  • The framework provides insights into managing costs and improving planning certainty within Germany's construction sector.
  • Practical guidance is offered for contractors and policymakers to mitigate risk and optimize budgeting in construction projects.

Cite This Study

Passek et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68f43f09854d1061a58ac92fhttps://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202510.1257.v1
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