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This is a Quantitative Study study.

October 19, 2025Open Access

Probabilistic State of Health Prediction for Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Incremental Capacity and Differential Voltage Curves

Key Points

The proposed WOA-BiLSTM model significantly enhances state of health predictions for lithium-ion batteries.
Experimental results show that the model achieves a PICP of 1 at the 90% confidence level, indicating highly reliable predictions.
The integration of the Bootstrap method allows for flexible and accurate uncertainty quantification in SOH predictions.
Performance metrics such as RMSE, MAE, and MAPE validate the superior accuracy of the WOA-BiLSTM model over baseline methods.

Abstract

The rapid proliferation of lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles and grid-scale energy storage systems has underscored the critical need for advanced battery management systems, particularly for accurate state of health (SOH) monitoring. In this study, a hybrid data-driven framework incorporating the whale optimization algorithm (WOA) for Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) networks is introduced. The framework extracts battery aging-related features based on incremental capacity (IC) and differential voltage (DV), which are used as inputs to the SOH prediction model. Then, the BiLSTM network is optimized by WOA to improve convergence performance and model generalization. To further quantify the prediction uncertainty, the Bootstrap approach was used to construct SOH prediction intervals for various confidence levels. Experimental results based on the Oxford dataset show that the proposed WOA-BiLSTM model outperforms the baseline methods including standard LSTM, BiLSTM, and BiGRU. Model performance is evaluated using the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). In addition, the integration of Bootstrap enables flexible and reliable interval prediction. The results show that PICP reaches 1 at the 90% confidence level and exceeds 0.85 at the 80% confidence level, with PINAW and CWC metrics validating the interval quality. The proposed method provides accurate point prediction and robust uncertainty quantification, offering a promising tool for smart battery health management.

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