The need for systemic, place-based risk assessments to support short and longer-term climate change adaptation

Climate change adaptation requires more place-based evidence to understand the context of historic, present and future vulnerability and how this translates to local patterns of risk. This study provides a globally relevant framework to understand multiple and often interconnected climate risks in a major coastal lowland, the Fens region, UK. It offers a practical approach to support decision makers to develop strategic and evidence-based adaptation responses. The study draws on a harmonised suite of spatially explicit climate risk models and regional literature to provide accessible information on key regional risks at shorter (2030s) and longer-term (2100 and beyond) timescales for flooding, drought, water scarcity, heat, agriculture, biodiversity and sea-level rise (SLR). Framing SLR as an existential risk beyond 2100 highlights the importance of place-based evidence for exploring a wide range of adaptation choices, given the critical near-term window to adapt to climate change in the region, and the need for potentially more radical approaches in the longer-term. Fundamental to informing and supporting this shift in thinking is the provision of data and information that can help stakeholders to engage, understand and approach adaptation planning in different ways. The framework has potential to support other coastal lowlands around the UK and internationally, which face coupled climate hazards and risks alongside SLR, and where more radical approaches or changes to manage future risk will be required in the longer-term, alongside local and national socio-economic and environmental objectives.