Measuring the impact of non-tariff measures on Vietnam's agricultural and fruit exports in the context of implementing new generation FTAs: Applying the gravity model

In the context of increasingly deep international economic integration, Vietnam's exports in the period 2007-2023 have grown by nearly 600%, from 54.591 billion USD to 374.613 billion USD (World Bank, 2025). Vietnam is currently participating in 19 free trade agreements (FTAs), including three new-generation FTAs: CPTPP, EVFTA, and UKVFTA (Ministry of Industry and Trade, 2025). These FTAs bring many opportunities but also pose challenges, especially the increase in non-tariff measures ( NTMs). Vietnam's agricultural products alone faced 12,009 measures in the field of animal and plant quarantine (SPS) in the period 2012-2018 (UNCTAD, 2025). This is particularly notable for fruits, which are perishable, subject to seasonal influences, and difficult to control residues. This study was conducted to measure the impact of NTMs on Vietnam’s fruit and agricultural exports to 53 partner countries from 2007 to 2023 through gravity model analysis with data from the World Bank, UNCTAD, and the Ministry of Industry and Trade. In addition to traditional macroeconomic variables (GDP per capita, population, and tariffs), this study added dummy variables to compare the differences between traditional FTAs and new-generation FTAs. The results show that NTMs are not entirely barriers, but in many cases have a positive impact, contributing to improving the quality of fruit exports. The important contribution of this study is to provide empirical evidence on the dual role of NTMs in the context of new-generation FTAs – an aspect that has been little studied in Vietnam. The study suggests policy implications for enhancing SPS compliance capacity, improving quality inspection, supporting businesses to adapt to international standards, and simultaneously promoting the advantages of new-generation FTA commitments.