Black swans and antifragility in Brazil: an interdisciplinary analysis of economic, institutional, and judicial fragilities

This article examines the persistence of systemic fragilities in contemporary Brazil, emphasizing how rare, high-impact events – the so-called “Black Swans” theorized by Nassim Taleb – expose and amplify vulnerabilities in the country’s economic, institutional, and judicial domains. Drawing on Taleb’s concept of antifragility, the work investigates whether Brazilian society and its governance structures learn from, adapt to, or are further destabilized by unpredictable shocks. The analysis integrates theoretical frameworks from Taleb and Jessé Souza with current empirical data, addressing macroeconomic instability, institutional pathologies, and the enduring influence of patrimonialism. The findings suggest that, instead of developing antifragile characteristics, Brazil repeatedly succumbs to cycles of volatility and persistent inequality. The article advocates for building genuinely antifragile policies and institutions, capable not only of withstanding chaos but of leveraging it to promote collective improvement.