Turnover Dynamics in NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball: A Structural Analysis by Game Outcome, Player Position, and Offensive Phase

Effective management of ball possession and minimizing turnovers are widely acknowledged as critical deter- minants of performance in elite-level basketball. This study aimed to analyze turnovers in NCAA Division I men’s basketball games, focusing on their frequency and typology in relation to game outcome, player position, type of offensive play, game half, and timing of occurrence. A total of 951 turnovers were analyzed across 45 official NCAA Division I games, using SportScout v.3.2 for video coding software, and SPSS v.29 for statistical analysis. The most frequent type of turnovers was bad passes (41.4%), followed by ball-handling errors (28.3%) and offensive fouls (13.8%). Winning teams committed fewer turnovers overall (47.2%) compared to losing teams (52.8%), particu- larly in passing-related errors. Guards accounted for the highest proportion of total turnovers (52.6%), especially during set offense situations (81.8%). Pivots exhibited a higher frequency of offensive fouls. Despite variations in turnover type and frequency across playing positions and offensive contexts, logistic regression analysis indicat- ed that turnover frequency and type did not significantly predict game outcomes at the p<0.05 level. These find- ings suggest that while turnovers serve as a key performance indicator, they do not act in isolation. Instead, they are shaped by a complex interplay of tactical and situational variables within the game environment. Training should emphasize decision-making under high-pressure conditions, enhanced recognition of game patterns, and situational awareness to reduce turnover rates throughout elite-level competitions.