This analysis demonstrates how reputation influences expert advice, suggesting control mechanisms for experimentation.
We study an expert-advice problem with career concerns and a continuous private signal about a binary payoff. A principal implements safe advice for sure and risky advice with a probability that increases with the expert's reputation; realized outcomes, when available, update reputation. We show equilibrium advice follows a cutoff in the signal and, under a relative-diagnosticity condition, the cutoff increases with reputation (reputational conservatism). Comparative statics are transparent, and simple policy levers - a success-contingent bonus and gatekeeping - provide implementable control of experimentation.
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Lukyanov et al. (2025) studied this question.
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