A Seer‐Based Analysis of Survival Predictors in Stage I Colorectal Adenocarcinomas

Background We assessed predictors of overall (OS) and cancer‐specific survival (CSS) in stage I colorectal cancer (CRC). Methods Retrospective analysis of patients with stage I colon or rectal adenocarcinomas from the SEER database (2010–2020) Survival was assessed using Kaplan‐Meier statistics and multivariable Cox regression analyses. The primary outcomes were 5‐year OS and CSS. Results 40,001 patients (51.3% male; mean age: 65.1 ± 12.6 years) were included. Colon and rectal cancers accounted for 75.8% and 24.2%, respectively. Five‐year OS and CSS were 83.1% (95% CI: 82.6–83.5%) and 93.2% (95% CI: 92.9–93.5%), respectively. Factors independently associated with worse OS were age (HR: 1.07; p < 0.001), male sex (HR:1.48; p < 0.001), Black race (HR: 1.25; p < 0.001), single, divorced, or widowed status (HR: 1.49, 1.46, and 1.43; p < 0.001), tumor size (HR: 1.001; p = 0.008), poorly differentiated carcinomas (HR: 1.32; p < 0.001), undifferentiated carcinomas (HR:1.44; p = 0.026), perineural invasion (HR: 1.84; p < 0.001), elevated CEA levels (HR: 1.68; p < 0.001), and systemic therapy (neoadjuvant: HR: 1.3; p = 0.032, adjuvant: HR: 2.2; p < 0.001, both: HR: 1.97; p < 0.001). Factors independently associated with worse CSS were age (HR: 1.05; p < 0.001), male sex (HR: 1.32; p < 0.001), Black race (HR: 1.43; p < 0.001), marital status (HR: 1.44, 1.28, and 1.68; p < 0.001), tumor size (HR: 1.003; p < 0.001), poorly differentiated carcinomas (HR: 1.77; p < 0.001), perineural invasion (HR: 2.29; p < 0.001), elevated CEA levels (HR: 2.24; p < 0.001), and systemic therapy (neoadjuvant: HR: 2.53; p = 0.032, adjuvant: HR: 4.22; p < 0.001, both: HR: 3.83; p < 0.001). Conclusions Although patients with stage I CRC had excellent survival, single, older, Black, male patients with large, high‐grade tumors associated with perineural invasion and elevated CEA levels had a higher mortality risk.