Observational analysis uncovered reduced ocean CO2 uptake during climate change, indicating crucial roles of ocean mixing and biology.
We use an Earth system model to investigate climate change effect on ocean CO 2 uptake. Atmospheric CO 2 increases from 1 × CO 2 (285 ppm) to 4 × CO 2 and then returns to 1 × CO 2 at a rate of 1% per year. At 4 × CO 2 , climate change reduces cumulative CO 2 uptake by 96 PgC, with the effect of temperature‐induced changes in ocean mixing, CO 2 solubility, and biology accounting for 46%, 38%, and 16%, respectively. After CO 2 starts to decrease, climate change continues to reduce CO 2 uptake due to persistent ocean warming, and the relative role of ocean mixing and biology becomes more important. When atmospheric CO 2 returns to 1 × CO 2 , climate change reduces cumulative CO 2 uptake by 198 PgC, with changes in ocean mixing, CO 2 solubility, and biology accounting for 52%, 23%, and 25%, respectively. Temperature‐induced changes in phytoplankton growth and remineralization rates each affect CO 2 uptake more strongly than solubility, though their effects partially offset each other.
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Yao et al. (2025) studied this question.
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