Soft Nudges, Hard Reality: Government Measures to Increase Turnout Don’t Mitigate the Negative Impact of Ending Compulsory Voting

When compulsory voting is abolished, this generally leads to a substantial drop in voter turnout. Can measures to increase turnout by local government administrations combat such decline? In this research note, we take up this question by focusing on the 2024 Flemish local elections, which were the first elections held under voluntary voting after more than 125 years of compulsory voting in the region. We first analyze aggregate level data to study whether municipalities who took more initiatives to mobilize voters witnessed lower levels of turnout decline than municipalities with weaker information campaigns. Second, we employ individual-level post-election survey data to assess whether respondents who were reached by these campaigns were more likely to cast a ballot in the election. The analyses yield a consistent pattern of null results: we find no significant effects on turnout at the aggregate nor at the individual level. We conclude that abolishing compulsory voting leads to a substantial decline in voter turnout that cannot be compensated by targeted measures and campaigns to mobilize citizens to vote.