Does Off-Farm Employment Affect Grain Production? Evidence from Wheat-Growing Households in China

Against the backdrop of expanding off-farm employment, it is of great practical significance to examine how off-farm employment affects grain production and its underlying mechanisms, in order to build a more stable and sustainable national food security system. Drawing on micro-level data from wheat-producing households in the national Rural Fixed Observation Points survey from 2004 to 2021, this study systematically investigates the impact of off-farm employment on wheat planting decisions and the channels through which it operates. The findings reveal the following: (1) Off-farm employment encourages farmers to adjust their factor input structure and crop choices, leading to an increased proportion of wheat sown area. (2) Agricultural socialized services, especially mechanized operations, enhance the feasibility of factor substitution and effectively channel off-farm income into agricultural investment. Furthermore, the number of service providers at the village level plays a significant moderating role in this process; the more adequate the service supply, the stronger the positive effect of off-farm employment on wheat cultivation. (3) The influence of off-farm employment on wheat production is more pronounced in plain regions with favorable topographic conditions and among large-scale farming households. Based on these findings, the study recommends improving the agricultural service system, promoting better coordination between off-farm employment and agricultural development, and fostering a more stable and sustainable support system for grain production.