Longitudinal Assessment of Land Use Change Impacts on Carbon Services in the Southeast Region, Vietnam

Land use change strongly influences ecosystem carbon services. This study evaluates long-term variations in carbon storage resulting from land use transitions in the Southeast region of Vietnam during 1990–2020. The analysis uses ALOS (JAXA) land use data in combination with QGIS-based spatial analysis to estimate carbon stocks. Land use trajectories were classified according to their dominant driving processes (urbanization, restoration, succession, reclamation, and reverse succession) to assess how each process affects carbon storage. The results indicate that total carbon stock increased from 475 million tons in 1990 to 502 million tons in 2010, before declining to 462 million tons in 2020. Carbon loss was mainly caused by urban expansion and ecological degradation, while ecological succession and forest restoration only partially compensated for these losses. This study develops a spatial framework for analyzing land use trajectories based on natural and anthropogenic dynamics, reflecting the region’s current administrative boundaries to improve management relevance. These findings underscore the need for sustainable land management, controlled urbanization, and ecosystem restoration to maintain carbon sequestration capacity and support Vietnam’s net-zero emission goals.