Insights into Forest Composition Effects on Wildland–Urban Interface Wildfire Suppression Expenditures in British Columbia

Burned area, fire severity, and suppression expenditures have increased in British Columbia in recent decades with climate change. Approximately 80% of suppression expenditures are attributable to wildfires near the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI). Evaluating the potential for fuel management to reduce suppression expenditures is essential to mitigating demands on fire response resources and reducing impacts on communities. One management approach is to increase the proportion of deciduous tree species, which have a lower propensity for crown fire. Using fire suppression expenditure data from 1981 to 2014, we applied the machine learning method causal forests (CFs) to estimate the effect of the proportion of conifer forest cover on suppression expenditures for WUI fires and how these effects varied with other influential factors (i.e., heterogenous treatment effects). Across all fires, the effect of conifer cover on suppression expenditures was stronger on private land compared to public land, under high fire danger measured by daily severity ratings (DSRs), which reflect wind speed and fuel moisture, and for fires igniting earlier in the calendar year, based on Julian day. These findings provide insights into prioritizing wildland fuel treatment when budgets are limited. The CFs approach demonstrates potential for broader applications in fire risk mitigation and analysis beyond the scope of the current data. CFs may also be valuable in other areas of forest research where heterogenous treatment effects are common.