Predictive Assessments of the Impact of Modern Global Warming on the Landscape-Zonal Conditions of the Volga River Basin

Prognostic landscape-ecological scenarios for the near future of the biosphere have been considered for the first time by taking a large region--the Volga River basin--as an example. The analysis was based on a method of regional landscape-ecological prognosis--developed by the author using discrete mathematics methods. Analytical and cartographic models of future landscape-ecological conditions (for 2050, 2075, and 2100) were obtained. The mechanisms of shifts in the mosaic structure of vegetation, soils, and landscapes have been revealed in the study area under different disturbance scenarios of the climatic system--scenarios anticipated in the foreseeable future (by the end of the 21st century). Forthcoming anthropogenic warming, accompanied by an excessive increase in surface runoff, will occur at the expense of a relative decrease in evapotranspiration, and particularly in groundwater flow. A progressively intensifying thermo-arid bioclimatic trend is predicted, with a general northward shift of zonal boundaries and corresponding changes in the soil water regime and vegetation cover structure. The prognostic models show the convergence of phytocoenoses into new zonal vegetation types.