Ecosystem dynamics in dune heathlands: spatial and temporal effects of environmental drivers on the vegetation

Pin-point cover data from 81 Danish dune heathland sites collected over 16 years were analyzed to quantify the effects of key environmental drivers on vegetation dynamics. A spatio-temporal structural equation model within a Bayesian hierarchical framework was used to assess the influence of nitrogen deposition, soil pH, soil C–N ratio, soil type, precipitation, and grazing. The species composition at Danish dune heathlands is changing, and most regression parameters for environmental drivers were significantly different from zero, indicating strong regulatory effects on both large-scale spatial variation and temporal dynamics. Precipitation and soil pH emerged as the most influential factors, underscoring the role of hydrological and edaphic conditions in shaping the vegetation at dune heathlands. The model predicts plant community dynamics and can be applied to forecast the effect of different management scenarios, providing a basis for adaptive site-specific management planning.