Analysis reveals shifts in MERCOSUR's economic output and trade in services during U.S.-China competition, affecting Latin America.
MERCOSUR, the Southern Common Market led by Brazil, is located in close proximity to the U.S., which makes it relatively more vulnerable, in comparison with the other regional integration blocs of the world, in the conditions of the intensifying U.S. – China competition. The objective of the paper is twofold: first, to reveal the context for the integration processes development in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC); second, to examine the dynamics of GDP, GDP per capita, population, trade in goods and services of MERCOSUR as a group, as well as those of Brazil as the engine of the integration bloc. Methodology. The data, taken from the UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics, the UNCTADstat Data Centre, as well as historical documents, and various publications, served as the information source for using a wide variety of methods, among which logical-historical, statistical, tabular-graphic, world-system analysis, etc. The results demonstrate that over 2015-2024, the MERCOSUR’s share of the global economy in terms of nominal GDP fell from 4,69%, i.e. $3’504’079 mln (with Venezuela, which suspended its membership in 2016) or 3,26%, i.e. $2’437’741 mln (without Venezuela) to 2,66%, i.e. $2’936’419 mln. The regional GDP per capita in the trade bloc (excluding Venezuela) rose by only 17,45%, or $1’628 (from $9’328 to $10’956) while the GDP per capita in the world increased by 32,96%, or $3’353 (from $10’173 to $13’526). In 2024, Paraguay ($6’350) and Brazil ($10’279) had the nominal GDP per capita below the world average ($13’526); Argentina had a bit higher indicator ($13’858), while Uruguay had the highest economic output per person ($23’650) in the group. The MERCOSUR’s share of the world population dropped from 3,98%, i.e. 292 mln (with Venezuela) or 3,6%, i.e. 261 mln (without Venezuela) to 3,28%, i.e. 268 mln. Its share of the global goods exports grew from 1,6%, or $263’922 mln (without Venezuela) to 1,8%, or $437’862 mln while its share of the global services exports declined from 1,07%, or $51’606 mln (without Venezuela) to 0,86%, or $75’197 mln. The MERCOSUR’s trade balance has been in a surplus for goods (e.g., $69’353 mln in 2024) and in a deficit for services (e.g., $58’941 in 2024). Brazil’s trade has transformed: the economy has become more open and globalized, rather than regionalized; its export ties with the Asian market have become much stronger and of higher priority to the country in comparison with those with the European and the American markets taken together. Practical implications. Though geographically located in the Western Hemisphere and historically related to the Monroe Doctrine, some LAC economies, and Brazil, the leader of the bloc and the region, have managed to overcome many obstacles while trying to secure a better space in the global economic system. Value/originality. In the context of the shifts in the balance of power and the formation of the new world order, it’s of vital importance for all the countries, the regional integration blocs and transcontinental coalitions to be guided by the eternal logic while paying special attention to strengthening financial and technological sovereignty.
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RUMIANTSEV et al. (2025) studied this question.
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