From Socialism to Market Economy in Central Europe’s Mountains: Interactions Between Population and Land Cover Changes in the Polish Carpathians

The socio-economic transformations that occurred across Central Europe in the 1990s profoundly influenced spatial development, as reflected in changes in population density and land cover, particularly in mountainous regions. This study investigates the relationship between population dynamics and land cover changes in the Polish Carpathians during the 20-year period following 1989, i.e., a time of major political and economic transformation. The research was conducted using detailed data based on 36 variables for 2250 statistical units at the lowest administrative level, combined with GIS-based analyses and statistical modelling. Results show that population density increased in more than 75% of administrative units, although the magnitude and direction of change varied considerably, both vertically and horizontally. The strongest growth occurred in the northern part of the study area, in the Foothills while depopulation was observed at higher elevations and in the eastern parts of the region. Land cover changes affected about 90% of administrative units, with built-up and infrastructural areas expanding mainly at the expense of heterogeneous agricultural land. At the same time, forest and shrub vegetation increased due to agricultural abandonment and natural regeneration. Principal component and mixed-model analyses identified topography, settlement location, and transport accessibility as the most significant drivers linking population and land cover changes. The findings highlight the lasting influence of historical spatial structures and initial demographic patterns on present-day development ways, illustrating how post-socialist transformation and EU integration have reshaped population distribution and land use in mountainous regions.