Mapping Violence: A Spatial Durbin Analysis of Social Disorganization and Land Use in Houston

This study examines how social disorganization and land use shape violent crime within and across neighborhoods in Houston, Texas. Using incident-level NIBRS data aggregated to 710 census tracts (2020–2022), we apply a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to assess both local and spillover effects. Results show that concentrated disadvantage and racial composition significantly predict violence, with effects extending beyond tract boundaries. Vacant land and entertainment parcels elevate risks in adjacent tracts, while mixed-use development and medical access diffuse protective effects into surrounding areas. By integrating social disorganization and environmental criminology perspectives, findings demonstrate that neighborhood violence is embedded in broader spatial systems and underscore the utility of SDMs for disentangling direct and indirect pathways of urban crime.