Bow-Tie-Based Risk Assessment of Fishing Vessel Marine Accidents in the Open Sea Using IMO GISIS Data

Open-sea fishing vessel accidents are difficult to assess systematically because no state holds exclusive jurisdiction, and reporting and investigative duties are not applied consistently. This study analyzed 67 officially reported accidents from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Global Integrated Shipping Information System (GISIS) using a bow-tie framework combining fault tree analysis (FTA), Firth logistic regression, event tree analysis (ETA), and quantitative risk assessment (QRA). COLREG violations and watchkeeping failures dominated collisions; overload and stability issues caused capsizes; pump capacity, hull leakage, and vessel aging (≥30 years) caused sinkings. Firth regression confirmed older vessels and high beam-to-length ratios (≥0.30) significantly increased sinking likelihood. ETA and QRA estimated probabilities of 0.522 for collisions, 0.090 for capsizes, and 0.388 for sinkings, with risks of R = 0.155, 0.048, and 0.036. Because open-sea accident data rely on limited and voluntary reporting, results are preliminary. However, the bow-tie framework effectively identifies dominant causal factors and high-severity event pathways in open-sea fishing operations.