To support or punish? analyzing the relationship between welfare state attitudes and penal punitiveness

The nexus between punishment and social welfare has been extensively studied at the macrolevel, both for single cases and across countries. However, we lack comparative studies at the individual level because the literatures on punitive and welfare attitudes have developed largely in isolation. This article for the first time provides comprehensive empirical evidence for the link at the micro-level. Using data covering 24,481 individuals in 22 countries from the European Social Survey's fourth wave, we test, first, whether individual punitive and welfare attitudes are empirically related and find evidence for a negative relationship. Second, when analyzing to what extent it is driven by common explanatory factors, we find that it holds even when controlling for the most relevant drivers or penal and welfare attitudes. Finally, we explore if context moderates this relationship. The more prosperous, equal, and safe a country is, the stronger the relationship between punitiveness and welfare attitudes becomes.