Linking tick and wildlife host distributions to map risk of tick-borne diseases

Background Tick-borne pathogens threaten livestock worldwide, causing diseases such as anaplasmosis, babesiosis, heartwater and theileriosis in cattle. The epidemiology of each disease is complex, with multiple tick and/or host species interacting across variable environments, and disease risk has not been fully assessed. Here, we used a One Health approach that integrates ecological, livestock and wildlife factors to identify areas with potential risk of tick-borne pathogen circulation. Methods Using ecological data on tick and host distributions alongside environmental and anthropogenic variables, we modeled the potential ranges of the four tick-borne diseases in North America and the Caribbean based on tick distributions. By integrating these disease-specific models, we generated comprehensive risk maps highlighting cattle exposure hotspots. We further evaluated how ungulate host communities shape the spatial patterns of tick-borne disease risk. Results Livestock operations in the central and eastern USA and in southern Mexico are the most vulnerable to tick-borne pathogens. Models demonstrated higher performance when incorporating ungulate host distribution, enabling us to identify the key ungulate species influencing tick distributions and the risk of tick-borne diseases. Conclusions Areas with greater ungulate diversity had greater tick diversity, further demonstrating the role of host community structure in shaping the dynamics of tick-borne pathogens. Identifying regions of North America with high exposure to tick-borne pathogens by assessing complex interactions between pathogens, hosts and vectors can aid in developing control strategies to safeguard cattle health.