Climate change and human activity drive the habitat of the Chinese red panda(Ailurus styani) to expand to higher altitude

Climate change and human activities drive migration, contraction, and expansion of species distribution. The scarcity of data on the distribution dynamics of the Chinese red panda (Ailurus styani) presents a substantial challenge for governments in formulating effective conservation strategies. This study used 11 habitat modeling techniques within the Biomod2 framework to analyze the spatiotemporal change trends in habitat of Chinese red panda in Sichuan Province, China. The results indicate that habitat of the Chinese red panda increase by 35.05 % from 2003 to 2013; however, it decrease by 37.42 % from 2013 to 2023. Further analysis reveal that human activities are the primary driver of habitat loss in 2013–2023, while climatic factors likely contribute to habitat expansion in 2003–2013. Projections under future climate scenarios suggest that the habitat may expand 29.67 % by 2050 and 21.25 % by 2070, reflecting a climate-induced spatial redistribution of habitat. Specifically, future habitat expansion is predominantly projected outside the Giant Panda National Park, at high-altitude regions averaging 2981.4 ± 284.5 m; in contrast, habitat contraction is concentrated within the park at lower elevations averaging 2117.3 ± 414.4 m. This shift reflects an adaptive response to cooler and more stable climatic conditions, yet simultaneously intensifies risks of habitat fragmentation and population isolation. These emerging patterns present significant challenges for ecosystem-based conservation and management efforts focused on endangered species. Therefore, we urge immediate actions, including expanding national park networks, reinforcing ecological protection red line designations, enhancing the Natural Forest Protection Program, and implementing integrated ecosystem conservation strategies to mitigate potential adverse impacts.