Exploring informal settlement fires in Indonesia: A study of fire risk assessment and fire resilient strategies in Medan

The growth and scale of urbanisation in Indonesia poses various challenges, including the availability of affordable housing, which has forced many low-income people to live in informal settlements. Fires account for 15% of all disasters in Indonesia, particularly in densely populated urban areas such as informal settlements. The nature of informal settlements, which lack basic services along with poor living conditions, increases the likelihood of fire. The topic of informal settlement fires in Indonesia is relatively unresearched, especially studies tailored to waterfront informal settlements typologies which prevents an understanding of fire risk and its impact in the area. This study aims to investigate what aspects influence fire risk in the area and to increase the resilience of informal settlements to fire outbreaks with the intention of improving community resilience. A case study with mixed methods is employed in this study. Our study consists of two phases of data analysis. The first phase consists of spatial analysis, derivation of weight, risk assessment, sensitivity analysis, and identification of policy drivers. Meanwhile, the second phase of our data analysis consists of analysing conditions, challenges, and opportunities, resilient strategies development, and scenario testing. The results of this study revealed that the risk of fire in the area is considered high-to-very high, which is driven primarily by moderate hazard, high vulnerability, and low-to-very low capacity against fire. Primary drivers of fire risk in the area are building materials, electrical connection and equipment, road width, and building density. As a result, this study proposed nine physical and non-physical resilient strategies which has been categorised into three distinct aspects: development planning, development regulations, and risk management and response. Spatial analysis revealed that, if fully implemented and operationalised, these strategies could reclassify 90% of the area to moderate risk. Further research is should examine the causal factors of past fire incidents, the institutional capacity for fire management, and the socioeconomic conditions of the community.