Assessment of Distribution Network Hosting Capacity Incorporating Multiple Uncertainty Factors

The integration of distributed generation (DG) and electric vehicles (EVs) introduces significant uncertainties, challenging traditional deterministic methods for assessing distribution network hosting capacity. This paper proposes a novel hosting capacity assessment method that integrates stochastic scenario simulation with multi-dimensional risk quantification. The core innovation lies in constructing a comprehensive risk indicator system spanning security, reliability, and the economy. These indicators are aggregated using a combined weighting method to derive a comprehensive risk index. Applied to the IEEE 33-node system, the method identifies an optimal hosting capacity of 3.9 MW and a maximum hosting capacity of 5.201 MW under a defined acceptable risk threshold. This maximum capacity represents a 33.36% increase over the security-risk-only optimal hosting capacity of 3.715 MW, effectively quantifying the trade-off between capacity integration and operational risk. The proposed framework provides a more robust and practical tool for distribution network planning under uncertainty.