Research on Real-Time Operational Risk Prediction for New Energy Vehicles Based on Multi-Source Feature Fusion

With the rapid growth of new energy vehicles (NEVs), the number of NEV-related traffic accidents has risen sharply. To address the challenge of low accuracy in real-time risk assessment caused by the coupling of multi-source heterogeneous data, this paper proposes a real-time risk prediction method for NEV operations based on multi-source feature fusion. First, considering issues such as signal loss and bias in NEV operation data and accident records, a fused accident operation dataset is constructed through data matching, imputation, and Kalman smoothing. Then, this study analyzes the influence of external factors (e.g., weather, road type, and lighting) and internal factors (e.g., speed, acceleration, and driving duration) on accident risk and develops a normalized representation method for NEV accident risk features. Based on the coupling of internal and external parameters, a real-time accident risk prediction model is established based on the XGBoost algorithm, enabling accurate prediction of NEV accidents. Vehicle data tests show that the proposed method achieves an average accident risk prediction accuracy of 69.60%, outperforming the traditional Analytic Hierarchy Process and Support Vector Machine models. Finally, application effect demonstrates that the method reduces the NEV accident rate to 0.83%, effectively assisting traffic management departments in identifying and warning high-risk vehicles, thereby improving road traffic safety.