Requirements for Flood-Driven Forecasting Systems for Small and Medium-Sized Catchments in Germany

Unlike most other measures in flood risk management, flood forecasting stands out because it is not designed to address a pre-defined return period. In principle it is applicable to a whole range of possible events and can be operated continuously in real time. This makes flood forecasting an effective non-structural measure for saving lives and property, even in the face of increased hydro-meteorological variability and extremes. In Germany, a series of regional and transregional flood forecasting centres and services have been established that cover the entire national territory. For large basins, the existing forecasting centres are well equipped to provide accurate real-time forecasts. Nevertheless, there are remaining challenges that need to be met when the focus is on small to medium-sized catchments. This study focuses on discussing the capabilities of six state-of-the-art flood forecasting centres and derives the most important requirements for significant improvements in flood forecasting capabilities for small to medium-sized catchment areas. We emphasise that future research must focus on flood-driven predictions, including the prediction of flood inundation and consequences for buildings and infrastructure, as well as geotechnical failure mechanisms in Germany.