Modeling future soil erosion vulnerability under different land management scenario using GIS-based RUSLE model: case of Gateno watershed, Tekeze Basin Ethiopia

Soil erosion remains a critical environmental challenge that diminish agricultural productivity, and ecosystem stability worldwide, particularly severe in Ethiopia highlands. Although some previous studies have estimated current erosion risks, limited research has explored how future land management scenarios may influence erosion dynamics at the watershed scale. This study addresses this gap by predicting soil erosion vulnerability in the Gateno watershed, Tekeze Basin, under four land management scenarios using a GIS-based Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. Results showed that baseline conditions generated a total annual soil loss of 48,372 t ha−1 yr−1, while agricultural expansion doubled erosion to 98,542 t ha−1 yr−1. Urbanization modestly reduced extreme erosion compared to agriculture, yielding total losses to 62,814 t ha−1 yr−1. In contrast, reforestation lowered total erosion to 41,826 t ha−1 yr−1and reducing high-severity erosion to 10.9%. The finding of this study revealed that agricultural expansion accelerates erosion by 104% compared to baseline, while reforestation cuts losses by 14%, highlighting vegetation’s stabilizing role. These insights can help local populations to adopt sustainable land-use practices, policymakers to consider scenario-specific land-use planning, and inform international efforts to achieve climate-resilient development and land degradation neutrality.