Circular Economy and Urban Land Green Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from Chinese Prefecture-Level Cities

This study explores how China’s National Circular Economy Demonstration City (NCEDC) policy affects the green total factor productivity of urban land (UL-GTFP), using the program as an exogenous policy intervention. Based on panel data for 278 cities from 2003 to 2023 and verified through multiple robustness checks, the results show that the NCEDC policy significantly promotes UL-GTFP, with its positive effects gradually emerging and remaining stable over time. The policy improves land-use efficiency mainly by enhancing resource allocation, driving industrial upgrading, and advancing market-oriented reforms. The effects are more evident in cities with larger land areas, stronger digital infrastructure, and vary across eastern, central, and western regions. Moreover, positive spatial spillovers indicate that pilot cities can boost UL-GTFP in surrounding areas through technology diffusion and industrial linkages. Overall, the findings highlight that circular economy policies can optimize land use and spatial structure, offering practical guidance for regionally tailored strategies to advance sustainable urban transformation.