Spatial Analysis and Forecasting of Land Use Dynamics Using NDVI , NDBI , LST , and LULC : A Case Study of Srinagar Garhwal, India

Urbanization in the Himalayan region has accelerated in recent decades, driven by population growth, tourism expansion, and infrastructure development, resulting in significant alterations in land use and land cover (LULC) patterns. Srinagar Garhwal, situated in the Northwestern Himalayas, provides a representative case study to investigate these transformations. This study integrates remote sensing and geospatial techniques to analyze LULC dynamics over the period 2017–2023, employing normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference built‐up index (NDBI), land surface temperature (LST), and detailed LULC classifications derived from Landsat 8 imagery. Multi‐temporal analysis reveals a significant expansion of built‐up areas (22.8%), a decline in vegetation cover (−15.6%), and changes in water bodies (−3.2%). Correlation analyses indicate a strong positive relationship between urban expansion and local surface temperature increase, highlighting emerging urban heat islands. Forecasting potential future trends identifies regions vulnerable to further urbanization and ecological degradation. These findings provide critical insights for sustainable urban planning and environmental management in Himalayan towns, emphasizing the integration of ecological sensitivity into development strategies.