Reconstructing the Nile: climate, agriculture, and socio-economic change in Roman Egypt

This article revisits and refines the reconstruction of Nile flood levels during the Roman period, using a multidisciplinary approach to integrate textual, numismatic, and epigraphic sources with environmental data and comparative Islamic-era Nilometer records. The Nile flood was a linchpin of agricultural prosperity and socio-economic stability for both Roman Egypt and the wider Mediterranean, yet systematic annual flood data remain absent for the Roman period. By expanding upon Bonneau’s pioneering 1971 study, this research reanalyzes her dataset in light of recent papyrological and epigraphic discoveries and new interpretations and scientific proxies. The study underscores a transition from stable and abundant Nile floods in the early Imperial period to weaker inundations after the mid-second century CE, correlating these changes with broader climatic cooling trends. Comparative analysis with Islamic-period flood data highlights long-term hydrological trends and emphasizes the interplay of climatic variability and annual Nile flood heights.