Long‐Term Dynamics of Ecosystem Services in the Hanjiang River Basin (2000–2022): Impacts of Interbasin Water Transfer and Ecological Restoration

The long‐term dynamics of ecosystem services (ESs) under the intervention of large‐scale water diversion and ecological restoration projects remain poorly understood, especially the dynamic evolution laws under their interaction, which is a major challenge for basin management. To address this research gap, this study explores the complex trade‐offs and synergies between ecosystem services (ESs) and their drivers in the Hanjiang River Basin, influenced by water diversion and ecological restoration projects. A novel framework combining Bayesian network modeling and node sensitivity analysis was applied to link four key ESs—water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), and sediment delivery ratio (SDR). Multiple‐scenario‐based ecosystem optimization and recommendations for ecological restoration in the Hanjiang River Basin are also provided. The results show that due to altered precipitation patterns and water diversion from the South‐to‐North Project, WY has shown significant spatial reorganization. CS, HQ, and SDR have remained relatively stable due to ecological restoration. ESs respond to land‐use changes with a time lag. At the regional level, trade‐offs are more common in southern sub‐basins, while synergies are predominant in western and northern areas. SDR shows synergies with WY, HQ, and CS, whereas WY exhibits trade‐offs with CS and HQ. When trade‐offs and synergies among ecosystem services are at a low level, their relationships tend to alternate over time. Population, land‐use changes, and climatic factors more significantly impact trade‐off relationships. In contrast, land use and slope have a more substantial effect on synergy relationships. Upstream inter‐basin water transfer areas and central erosion‐prone regions are identified as key zones for future ES optimization. This study outlines the state and spatial patterns of environmental drivers across various trade‐offs and synergies, offering insights for sustainable spatial planning and management.