Drake Equation 2.0: A Bayesian, TimeDependent, and Observability-Centered Framework

This record contains the manuscript, data, and supplementary materials for “Drake Equation 2.0: A Bayesian, Time-Dependent, and Observability-Centered Framework.” Drake Equation 2.0 is a revised probabilistic framework for estimating the number of currently observable extraterrestrial civilizations, NobsNobsNobs. It extends the classical Drake Equation by: • Using Monte Carlo Bayesian integration with full marginalization over all parameters • Incorporating time-dependent astrophysical quantities (star formation history, metallicity, Galactic habitability) • Modeling signal survival over cosmic time with an exponential decay kernel • Including an explicit detectability term based on real instrument capabilities (e.g., MeerKAT, FAST) The baseline model finds a median Nobs≈0.26Nobs ≈ 0.26Nobs≈0.26 with a 68% credible interval of [0.05,1.95][0.05, 1.95][0.05,1.95]. Uncertainty is dominated by the detectability fraction and the abiogenesis rate. In this framework, a null detection in present-day radio SETI surveys remains entirely consistent with the posterior, providing a quantitative resolution of the Fermi paradox: the probability of zero detections in current searches is ≈73%≈ 73%≈73%. This Zenodo record includes: • The main manuscript PDF • Data archives (drake_eq2_data.zip) containing posterior samples, stress-test results, and sensitivity indices • A reproducibility / publication bundle (drake_eq2_publication.*) with LaTeX source, figures, and configuration files • environment.yml specifying the analysis environment • LICENSE (MIT) and README documentation All reported results are reproducible using the configuration files and environment specification provided. Full simulation code and the complete 1M-sample posterior dataset are available on request.