Predicting habitat suitability of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Stål) in India based on CMIP6 projections

The brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Stål), is a phloem feeder insect pest of the rice crop. Outbreaks of N. lugens are closely linked to climate variability, often resulting in significant economic losses because of reduced yields. Understanding its potential distribution and the environmental factors influencing its current and future spread is essential for effective management. This study aims to evaluate the influence of climate variability on N. lugens and to project its potential distribution under various climate scenarios of the Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for the near (2050) and far future (2070), integrating through the species niche model. These projections were assessed across four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and compared to a historical baseline. Spatial mapping of potential distribution areas was carried out to analyse temporal variations, with habitat suitability categorised from low to high. The present study results revealed that temperature‐related variables accounted for 61.04% of habitat suitability for N. lugens , with annual mean temperature identified as the most critical environmental factor. While precipitation played a secondary role, contributing 38.96% to the population spread and establishment, the projection indicated extensive areas of high habitat suitability for N. lugens , especially in the eastern and southern rice‐growing states of Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Currently, 54.92% of India's land area is suitable for N. lugens establishment, with 7.80% categorised as high‐risk zones. Under future climate change scenarios (SSP 126 to SSP 585), the area classified as high risk is projected to expand significantly, covering 30.35% and 27.24% of India's land area by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Southern and eastern states are expected to remain primary hotspots, while the north‐eastern regions are projected to face emerging risks with low to moderate habitat suitability. These findings highlight the urgent need to develop effective adaptation and management strategies in response to the increasing risk and shifting distribution pattern of N. lugens in India.