Disentangling the Complex Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Carbon Neutrality in China

Rapid artificial intelligence (AI) advancements have emerged as a critical catalyst in curbing carbon emissions and fostering sustainable growth. Drawing upon balanced panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2022, this study employs the spatial Durbin model, along with mediating and moderating effect models, to explore the influence of industrial intelligence on urban carbon emissions and the underlying mechanisms. The findings reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between AI development and carbon emissions, exhibiting a critical transition threshold at 12.57 AI firms per 10,000 km². Beyond this threshold, carbon intensity transitions from persistent growth to sustained decline. Mechanism analysis demonstrates differentiated mediation effects: Industrial rationalization significantly mediates emission reduction by optimizing production processes, whereas industrial advancement shows null mediation due to energy rebound effects and time-lag constraints. Moderating effect analyses show that human capital amplifies AI’s decarbonization efficacy. Meanwhile, marketization exhibits statistically insignificant moderation effects, which is attributable to institutional failures in environmental pricing and carbon market fragmentation.