Hydrogeochemical Characteristics of Hot Springs and Mud Volcanoes and Their Short-Term Seismic Precursor Anomalies Around the Muji Fault Zone, Northeastern Pamir Plateau

The Muji Fault Zone (MJF) in the northeastern Pamir Plateau hosts a well-developed non-volcanic geothermal system, characterized by widespread hot springs and mud volcanoes—where core processes of geothermal fluids, including atmospheric precipitation recharge, shallow crustal circulation, carbonate-driven water–rock interactions, and CO2-rich fluid discharge, are tightly coupled with regional intense crustal deformation and frequent seismic activity. We collected and analyzed 22 geothermal water samples and 8 bubbling gas samples from the MJF periphery, finding that the geothermal waters are predominantly of the HCO3-Ca·Mg hydrochemical type, with hydrogen (δD: −103.82‰ to −70.21‰) and oxygen (δ18O: −14.89‰ to −10.10‰) isotopes indicating atmospheric precipitation as the main recharge source. The Na-K-Mg ternary diagram classified the waters as immature, reflecting low-temperature water–rock interactions in the shallow crust (<3 km), while noble gas isotopes (3He/4He: 0.03–0.09 Ra, Ra = 1.43 × 10−6) and carbon isotopes (δ13C-CO2) confirmed fluid origin from crustal carbonate dissolution; SiO2 geothermometry estimated thermal reservoir temperatures at 67–155 °C. Long-term monitoring (May 2019–April 2024) of Tahman (THM) and Bulake (BLK) springs revealed significant pre-seismic anomalies: before the 2023 Tajikistan Ms7.2 and 2024 Wushi Ms7.1 earthquakes, Na+, Cl−, and SO42− concentrations showed notable negative anomalies (exceeding 2σ of background values) with synchronous trends between the two springs. Integrating these findings, a “Fault-Spring-Mud Volcano-Earthquake” fluid response model was established, providing direct evidence of deep-shallow fluid coupling in mud volcano–geothermal fluid interactions. This study enhances understanding of the dynamic evolution of non-volcanic geothermal systems under tectonic stress and clarifies the mechanisms of hydrogeochemical variations in fault-controlled geothermal systems, offering a robust scientific basis for advancing research on tectonic–fluid interactions in active fault zones of the northeastern Pamir Plateau.