On Targeting Unesco's Benchmark(s) on Budgetary Allocations to Education Sector in Nigeria: A Statistical Conceptualisation

The UNESCO’s recommended benchmarks of 15%, 20% and 26% for annual percentage budgetary allocations to the education sector of Nigeria were targeted beyond 2023. The percentage budgetary allocations to the education sector of Nigeria by the Federal Government of Nigeria from 1960 to 2023 fell below the UNESCO’s benchmarks, except in 1997. The simple linear regression analyses revealed a gradual upward linear trend; with positive and significant intercept and slope. Also, an upward linear trend was established with positive and significant intercept and slope when the Pre-Recent Democratic Regime (1960-1998) was studied. A downward linear trend, with a positive and significant intercept and a non-significant negative slope was established for the allocations during the Recent Democratic Regime (1999-2023); and thus the model was not used in the forecasts. The forecast results, obtained using the model for (1960-2023) showed that the UNESCO’s benchmarks of 15%, 20%, and 26% would be attained in Nigeria in 2102, 2163, and 2236, respectively. On the other hand, using the model for (1960-1998), the benchmarks of 15%, 20%, and 26% would be attained by Nigeria in 2066, 2109, and 2161, respectively. An attempted targeting on the UNESCO’s benchmarks, when the slope of the model for (1960- 2023) was doubled, revealed that the benchmarks of 15%, 20%, and 26% would be attained by Nigeria in 2031, 2061, and 2098, respectively; while when the slope of the model for (1960-1998) was doubled, two UNESCO’s benchmarks of 20% and 26% would be attained in Nigeria in 2034 and 2060, respectively; and that of 15% would have long been attained in 2013. In the cases the slopes were tripled, the model for (1960-2023) revealed the attainments of two benchmarks of 20% and 26% in 2027 and 2052, respectively; and that of 15% would have long been attained in 2007. Finally, tripling the slope of the model for (1960-1998) revealed that just one benchmark of 26% would be attained in 2027; and those of 15% and 20% would have long been attained in 1995 and 2009, respectively.