Long-Term Trends and Seasonally Resolved Drivers of Surface Albedo Across China Using GTWR

Amid accelerating global warming, surface albedo is a key indicator and regulator of how Earth’s surface reflects solar radiation, directly affecting the planetary radiation balance and climate. In this paper, we combined MODIS shortwave albedo (MCD43A3, 500 m), MODIS NDVI (MOD13A3, 1 km; NDVI = normalized difference vegetation index) and 1-km gridded meteorological data to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of surface albedo across China during 2001–2020 at a gridded scale. Temporal trends were quantified with the Theil–Sen slope and the Mann–Kendall test, and the seasonal contributions of NDVI, air temperature, and precipitation were assessed with a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model. China’s mean annual shortwave albedo was 0.186 and showed a significant decline. Attribution indicates NDVI is the dominant driver (~48% of total change), followed by temperature (~27%) and precipitation (~25%). Seasonally, NDVI explains ~43.94–52.02% of the variation, ~26.81–28.07% of the temperature, and ~21.17–28.57% of the precipitation. Clear spatial patterns emerge. In high-latitude and high-elevation snow-dominated regions, albedo tends to decrease with warmer conditions and increase with greater precipitation. In much of eastern China, albedo is generally positively associated with temperature and negatively with precipitation. NDVI—reflecting vegetation greenness and canopy structure—captures the effects of vegetation greening, canopy densification, and land-cover change that reduce surface reflectivity by enhancing shortwave absorption. Temperature and precipitation affect albedo primarily by regulating vegetation growth. This study goes beyond correlation mapping by combining robust trend detection (Theil–Sen + MK) with GTWR to resolve seasonally varying, non-stationary controls on albedo at 1-km over 20 years. By explicitly separating snow-covered and snow-free conditions, we quantify how NDVI, temperature, and precipitation contributions shift across climate zones and seasons, providing a reproducible, national-scale attribution that can inform ecosystem restoration and land-surface radiative management.