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November 11, 2025Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural SciencesOpen Access

Future outlook for rapeseed and mustard: comprehensive forecasting of area and production

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Authors

MKMuhammad Nisar KhanMRMuhammad Abdul RahmanAMArshad Mahmood Malik

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Overview

Time series modeling predicts substantial growth in oilseed production and highlights challenges in cultivation.

Key Points

  • This research aims to forecast the area and production of rapeseed and mustard in Pakistan over the next decade.
  • Utilized Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series modeling technique for predictions.
  • Analyzed historical data from 1970–71 to 2022–23 to identify trends in cultivated area and production.
  • Conducted diagnostic tests including Ljung-Box, heteroscedasticity (ARCH) tests, and assessed statistical indicators for model validation.
  • Forecasts project an increase in cultivated area from 438 thousand hectares in 2024 to 876.1 thousand hectares by 2033.
  • Production is expected to nearly double from 592.6 thousand tonnes to around 1,196.5 thousand tonnes over the same period.
  • Identified yield variability as a critical challenge due to climate variability, poor seed quality, and limited mechanization.

Cite This Study

Khan et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69252ea3c0ce034ddc3567f1https://doi.org/10.1007/s44447-025-00064-1
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