The Role of Toss Zenith and Impact Height in the Relationship Between Shoulder Rotation Strength and Serve Speed in Junior Tennis Players

Background: Serve speed in tennis can be influenced by physical strength and toss kinematics, yet their interaction remains unclear in junior athletes. This study investigated the relationships between toss-related variables (zenith height, impact height, and zenith–impact differential), shoulder rotation strength, and serve speed in junior tennis players. Methods: Thirteen nationally ranked junior male players (mean age: 15.8 ± 0.9 years; body mass: 65.9 ± 5 kg; height: 181 ± 7 cm) participated. Isokinetic shoulder internal and external rotation strength (concentric/eccentric at 210°/s and 300°/s) were measured. High-speed 3D motion capture (Qualisys) recorded toss zenith, impact height and zenith–impact differential during flat serves directed into a designated 1 × 2 m target zone. Serve speed was measured by a radar gun. Correlation, mediation, and moderation analyses were conducted (n = 13; sensitivity ρ ≥ 0.69 for 80% power). Results: Impact height showed a significant positive correlation with successful (ρ = 0.746, p = 0.003) and unsuccessful serve speed (ρ = 0.776, p = 0.002). Moderation analyses showed that lower variability in impact height (p = 0.043) and in zenith–impact differential (p = 0.048) significantly strengthened the association between shoulder-rotator strength and serve speed. Conclusions: Moderation analyses revealed that lower variability in impact height and in the zenith–impact differential strengthened the relationship between shoulder strength and serve speed. Preliminary evidence suggests that consistent toss execution could enhance the translation of shoulder-rotation strength into serve speed in junior players.